Fuel cost Crisis looming

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Oil costs will push some Asian airlines under: analysts say, Record-high oil prices have sparked the biggest crisis in the Asian airline industry since the SARS scare, and analysts say some carriers are likely to go under if prices do not let up soon. They say many of the region's airlines are ill-prepared to cope with the price surge, which saw oil top 139 dollars per barrel last week amid wide expectation prices will only keep rising in the months ahead."No one is going to escape this crisis unscathed," said Derek Sabudin, an analyst from the Sydney-based Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation consultancy.

He said airlines face a "severe shakeout" if extremely high fuel prices continue, with the industry already coping with the fallout from a US-led global economic slowdown."Carriers will be exiting the market," Sabudin said. "The weaker ones will go, and stronger carriers will shrink in size, if we see prices where they are above 120 dollars beyond the summer peak."Shukor Yusof, an aviation analyst with Standard and Poor's Equity Research, said most carriers had not factored in prices at such "stratospheric" levels -- and that they were now not moving quickly enough in response."Few Asian airlines are reacting, in our view, adequately and aggressively enough to the oil shock and the devastation soon to follow," Shukor said.

If prices continue rising and hit 150 dollars a barrel or even higher, he said, "expect to see a rash of Asian carriers grounded and go bust."The International Air Transport Association (IATA), which had predicted an industry profit of 4.5 billion US dollars this year, is now projecting a loss of 2.3 billion dollars.The IATA, which represents more than 200 carriers that account for 94 percent of global traffic, says that every one dollar rise in oil prices will increase airline operating costs by 1.6 billion US dollars annually.Airlines already expected to pay about 176 billion US dollars for fuel expenses this year based on oil prices of 106.5 US dollars per barrel, said IATA, adding fuel accounts for 34 percent of operating costs.

Overall, analysts say, it is the worst crisis to hit Asia's aviation industry since the pneumonia-like Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) killed almost 800 people in 32 countries in a 2002-2003 outbreak.The health scare led to a massive slump in regional travel as well as financial losses for major carriers including Japan Airlines Group, China Airlines of Taiwan, and Singapore Airlines (SIA).To deal with the crisis, SIA slashed capacity by 30 percent while Philippine low-cost carrier Cebu Pacific suspended its route to Singapore.

In the face of the current situation, some regional carriers have begun to replicate the cost-cutting measures rolled out by US airlines trying to cope with the steep oil price rise. Australian flag carrier Qantas announced plans last month to slash domestic capacity by five percent, cut payroll, and retire several aircraft. The airline also reduced service to Asia. Thai Airways said last Friday it is cancelling its direct flight from Bangkok to New York, starting July, and selling four planes used on that route. Malaysia Airlines said it would freeze recruitment and was considering axing more routes as part of cost-cutting measures triggered by rising fuel prices.

Apart from their financial reserves, the strategies adopted by Asian carriers will determine whether they can survive this latest crisis, said Jason Pereira, a senior associate with Las Vegas-based Globalysis consultancy."It is a combination of financial reserve strength and smart strategy that will see some airlines come out on top," said Pereira, who monitors the region from Singapore.Some analysts say the region's low-cost carriers are more vulnerable to rising oil prices because they are typically managed on a tight budget.

Tiger Airways and AirAsia, two leading budget airlines in Southeast Asia, have both said will survive the turbulence -- and even emerge stronger."Profits are obviously going to be affected when oil triples in price but I take a very different approach," said Tony Fernandes, group chief executive of AirAsia, which pioneered regional low-cost travel."We think the time is to grow now," he told AFP. "There is a limit to what you can cut" in terms of costs.Tiger Airways chief operating officer Steve Burns said the carrier keeps costs to a minimum and is confident it can weather the fuel price onslaught."What we focus on is to be as lean and as efficient as possible," he said.---End Quote---

PAL plans Persian Gulf Flights

Philippine Airlines (PAL) is planning to re-introduce flights to Bahrain and other Persian Gulf countries within the next two years, the airline's president and chief operating officer Jaime Bautista told the GDN. He revealed details of the plan two years after the airline discontinued its flights to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and 14 years after the Bahrain route was scrapped.

The expansion, which will include flights to other Middle East countries outside the GCC, will coincide with a major expansion in the next two years - with PAL planning to buy an additional 30 planes.

Mr Bautista said "operational difficulties" and "over capacity" had led to PAL slowly cancelling operations to several Arab countries, including Bahrain, in the last 10 to 12 years."We are now conducting talks with our partners in the region to determine how best to re-start operations and how many flights to have," he said. "We are also talking with Civil Aviation Affairs officials in Bahrain and other parts of the region."We stopped Bahrain operations in 1994, Abu Dhabi a few years later and finally Riyadh was scrapped two years ago. "We were always keen to serve the Filipino community in Bahrain and the other countries in the region, but had to withdraw due to operational reasons.

"Now, since we are expanding all over the world and getting a lot of new aircraft, an expansion into the region is very much on the cards."Mr Bautista was in Bahrain en route to Istanbul, Turkey, to attend a meeting of the International Air Transport Association (IATA).He said PAL already had several code-sharing agreements with carriers in the region, operating around 60 such flights to several Middle Eastern destinations.

It is now seeking to expand its own fleet from 39 aircraft to 59 by the end of 2010 - almost doubling the size of the airline."PAL still has and will continue to have one of the youngest fleets in the region," he added.PAL has recently been named "Airline Turnaround of the Year 2007" by the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation (Capa), a Sydney-based aviation think-tank, for successfully graduating from rehabilitation and returning to sustained profitability."

Few airlines have reformed themselves so comprehensively as PAL," added Mr Bautista."An unflinching cost focus, network focus and superb productivity enhancement have provided us the platform to profitably expand and establish a strong position in the region's aviation industry."

Training Aircraft To Be Built At Clark

The Philippines’ aviation sector received a lift after an Italian defense contractor and a Filipino aviation firm signed a deal for the manufacture of training aircraft at Clark Development Zone.

Alenia Aermacchi of Aerotech Industries Philippines Inc. signed the agreement to build 18 SF 260F aircraft trainer on April 24, and they will be used by the Philippine Air Force.
The aircraft, spare parts and services to be provided by Alenia will cost the government $13.8 million.

“The agreement will definitely boost the Philippines’ aviation industry,” said Teresa Parian, Aerotech Industries’ chief operating officer.
“The agreement is through 2015, which means that all orders that Alenia Aermacchi will receive worldwide up to that period will be assembled in and supplied out of the Aerotech Philippines facility.

“Considering that 27 armed forces use SF 260 trainer aircraft all over the world, with about 1,000 units in operation, Alenia Aermacchi estimates 100 new units of this aircraft type will be sold in the next five years,” Parian said.

In a statement, Alenia Aermacchi said it would start delivering the aircraft to the Air Force next April, and that and all planes would be supplied within 18 months.

Sky Diving Game

Here is a simple game for all you sky divers. Simple, but have fun trying to get your sky diving girlfriends lined up in formation.

Microsoft Flight Simulator X For Pilots Real World Training

Authors: Jeff Van West and Kevin Lane-Cummings

Publisher: Wiley (http://www.wiley.com/)

ISBN: 978-0-7645-8822-8

Price: $29.99(USD): $35.99 (CAN) : £19.99 (UK) Street price $16.99 USD

Self promotion text

“It’s the next best thing to being up there – Why use Microsoft Flight Simulator for real world training? Because it gives you the best possible head start and enables you to learn at your convenience. Flight Simulator provides scenario-based training that lets you practice handling in almost any situation. It offers advantages you don’t get in a real plane – the option to set up any kind of weather or equipment failures, stop midway and redo a procedure, or get the view from outside the airplane. FSX isn’t a game. It’s a training mission for virtual and real aviators alike.”

What you get

You get a hefty 725 page paperback book, downloadable flights to do in conjunction with your reading, along with the necessary charts in PDF format. Also available for download are two bonus chapters and the practical test standards for each of the license ratings discussed in the book.

First impressions

The book is huge. Just the amount of paper and ink makes it seem like good value. The book’s illustrations are all black and white. Color versions of the images used are available on the web site. The number of chapters and subjects is impressive taking 13 pages to list. Looking through the subjects covered is daunting, but the work is obviously comprehensive.

Starting out

You will want to download the 3 zipped files of missions / charts / details etc from the publisher’s web site. The books introduction tells you exactly where to get the files from and where they need to be installed. The first chapter deals with getting FSX set up properly for the purposes of the book. It discusses PC specs and how these affect the performance you can expect to achieve within FSX, the different types of controllers used for simulation flying and the best settings within FSX to use with the tutorial flights. The book also assumes that you will be using it in conjunction with lessons at a real world flying school and so also gives hints and tips on finding the best school and instructor for you. The authors do suggest that finding an instructor with FSX experience would be beneficial especially so if they can set up scenarios for you to go through that you will be dealing with on your next lesson. FSX now has support for multi-players within the same aircraft if rain stops play and your instructor is amenable you could go through your lesson virtually with you at home and them at the flying school.

First Flight

Chapter two discusses the principles of flight in sufficient detail and explains the basics without getting too technical. Then it introduces us to the default Piper Cub.
The authors explain that the main shortfall with using FSX as a training aid is the lack of peripheral vision which real world pilots rely on to inform them of the attitude of the aircraft in flight. Simulator pilots rely much more on the instruments because they lack the real world cues. The reason for using the Piper Cub is the distinct lack of instruments to look at and a more open uncluttered cockpit so you can focus more on the horizon and get used to relying on it as you would do in a real aircraft.

The first flight within FSX raises the initial bad point, unlike the missions included in FSX or Rod Machado’s training flights there are no in-flight instructions included. The good side is there are none of the patronizing verbal compliments permeating the FSX missions. You basically load the saved flight and then have to fly with the book in one hand and your joystick in the other. Concentrating on both at the same time is impossible so prepare to become acquainted with the pause key. On the plus side the authors do include saved video’s of many of the flights so you can get an idea of what you are expected to do and how to do it prior to undertaking the flight yourself.

As an undertaking the concept and its execution are remarkable. Intensely detailed down to specific FSX recommendations for best performance, it is an awesome undertaking. Given the limitation of simulated flight, you could easily learn to fly with this book. In my mind it would be especially suited to learn systems and procedures where actual flying is secondary to learning navigation, radio use, and cockpit procedures.